The initiation of a new rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is stirring optimism among bank investors, reminiscent of the prosperous era in 1995. That year marked the beginning of an exceptional period for the banking industry, following a series of rate cuts by the Fed under the astute guidance of then-Chairman Alan Greenspan, which led to a soft landing for the economy. The sector's index concluded 1995 with a robust increase of over 40%, surpassing the performance of the S&P 500. This outperformance was sustained for two additional years, raising the question: Could history be on the verge of repeating itself?
The early indicators for bank stocks this year are promising, with the same banking industry index that experienced a boom in 1995 already up by more than 19%, closely trailing the major stock indexes. Another index, which tracks large banks along with significant non-bank financial firms, has seen a 21% increase, slightly ahead of the major indexes.
Mike Mayo, a Wells Fargo analyst specializing in the country's largest banks, cautions that "History isn’t likely to repeat, but it may rhyme," suggesting that while a direct replication of 1995 is unlikely, there are indeed similarities worth noting. On three occasions—1995, 1998, and 2019—when the Fed lowered interest rates without a subsequent recession, bank stocks initially declined after the first cut but rebounded several weeks later, outperforming the S&P 500, according to Wells Fargo Securities' analysis.
However, a broader review of the past six rate-cutting cycles (including those followed by recessions) reveals that the industry's outperformance is typically short-lived. The 1995 scenario, where banks outperformed the broader stock market for over three months post the first rate cut, stands alone.
The circumstances in 1995 were not solely due to monetary policy. The year began with challenges for lenders, including the bankruptcy of Orange County, California, and the collapse of British merchant bank Barings. Banks with significant trading operations were also recovering from substantial losses in the bond market, and commercial real estate lenders were dealing with ongoing loan losses from an earlier crisis. Despite these issues, real U.S. GDP dipped below 1% in the first half of the year, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 250 basis points. Crucially, these long-term yields remained higher than short-term rates, allowing banks to profit from the spread.
Additionally, 1995 saw the beginning of a new era of deregulation in banking, with a federal law signed by President Bill Clinton the previous year. This law removed restrictions on banks opening branches across state lines, paving the way for the rise of mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup.
While banks are once again finding favor in Washington, with recent regulatory victories, not all developments are in their favor. The Justice Department has recently abandoned long-standing guidelines for approving bank mergers, potentially impacting the industry's future.
The impact of interest rate cuts on bank earnings is currently mixed. Lenders that thrived under high rates may see reduced profits, while those that lagged may expect an uptick. The ability of the Fed to achieve a soft landing, avoiding recession while curbing inflation, is also a critical factor.
Bank executives, such as Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan and PNC's CEO Bill Demchak, have expressed expectations for improved earnings in 2025. However, others, including JPMorgan Chase's COO Daniel Pinto, have cautioned that analysts may be overly optimistic about 2025 earnings. The industry also faces potential credit challenges, with some banks already reporting intensified credit issues.
In summary, while the parallels between the current climate and the favorable conditions of 1995 are evident, a multitude of factors, including regulatory changes, economic performance, and the Fed's policy decisions, will determine if the banking industry can replicate the success of that era.
